Failure of prophecy

 The other day the national emergency system was tested, with sirens and alerts sent to people's phones.  The announcement that it was coming was greeted with a whole panoply of wild conspiracy theories, primarily that the sound would trigger the microchip (or perhaps the evil virus) that the Covid-19 vaccine had supposedly planted in our bodies, thus either giving us all some dread disease or even (best yet!) turning us all into zombies.

Now of course hardly anyone was turned into a zombie, or not that you'd notice.  But the incident does raise an interesting issue:  What are the prophets supposed to do when prophecy fails?  This was a problem in the Middle Ages too, although then it was more likely based on some prophecy out of the Bible than on vaccines and zombies.

The failure of the zombie apocalypse the other day was met with extended discussions of why this wasn't actually a failure of prophecy.  The social media gurus who started the idea began by denying they had actually said it would happen right away (even though that was of course what they'd suggested, even if the words "right away" had not passed their lips -- or the keyboard on their phones). This was met with appropriate derision.

 Struggling to find respect, today's conspiracy prophets insisted that things really had turned out just as they said, except that the dread disease (or microchip) was going to take a few days, even a few weeks, for its effects to be felt.  Or perhaps the sirens had been set to a different frequency than that required to activate the microchip.  Maybe Homeland Security had been warned of the dangers of a zombie apocalypse and changed the sirens at the last moment!  yes, that's the answer!  We're heroes!  (More derision.)

Those predicting the end of the world in the Middle Ages (an issue that came up frequently, though curiously enough not in the year 1000, the year modern textbooks like to talk about) had to deal with similar concerns.  If you predict the world is about to end, and yet sure enough there it is the next day, hanging in there, you have to come up with some rational explanation.

One of the best responses was that God had seen all the faithful people who believed in the end of the world praying away, been touched by their faith, and changed His mind, figuring to give us another chance.  This meant the prophets could call themselves heroes, even if it did make God seem rather unsure of Himself, and it always failed to persuade those who hadn't believed in the end of the world originally.

Alternately prophets could claim the end really was coming, but their calculations had been a tiny bit off, they'd forgotten to carry the 2, next summer for sure!  This only works once.  The next time the prophecy fails people start getting suspicious of the prophets.

The strongest response was to say that the apocalypse really had happened, but only the select few were capable of noticing.  This actually works well for a small, core group of believers, who essentially have given up on recruiting anyone else to their cause.  (Though even they may become suspicious after a while.)

In the Middle Ages failed prophecies quickly became heresies.  Groups like the Cathars of twelfth-thirteenth-century southern France, heretics already, had numerous prophecies, often based around ideas of three ages of the world, with things changing mightily in the third.  (It could become complicated, some Cathar theologians had each age have three divisions of its own, so the beginning of the Third Age was also the beginning of the seventh smaller age, allowing more room for different signs and events.)  Being the only ones who believed the prophecies could draw a group labeled as heretical closer together.

But for most of the medieval population, including those who at least temporarily believed in the coming end of the world, the most common response was to go home and pretend they'd never believed in anything so silly.  One assumes that those who were preparing for the zombie apocalypse this week took a similar approach.

© C. Dale Brittain 2023

For more on medieval religious and social history, see my ebook Positively Medieval, available on Amazon and other ebook platforms.  Also available in paperback.